Transport Infrastructure Sector Primer
A 41-page primer plus Excel valuation model on toll road and airport concessions: the finite-life DCF, traffic, tariff escalators, RAB regulation and leverage.
PDF Only
The full primer in PDF format
£25 / ~$32- ✓ 41-page sector primer
- ✓ Worked valuations
- ✓ Screening thresholds
Excel Model
Plug-and-play valuation template
£45 / ~$58- ✓ Pre-built valuation model
- ✓ Sensitivity tables
- ✓ Scenario toggles
PDF + Model
Everything you need in one package
- ✓ 41-page sector primer
- ✓ Valuation model (.xlsx)
- ✓ Save £11 vs buying separately
Three primers, three Excel models
Regulated Utilities, Renewables & IPPs, and Transport Infrastructure. Everything at ~25% off
Inside the primer
The 15-section contents, a worked valuation page, and the Excel dashboard.
Table of Contents
- 01 How Concessions Make Money
- 02 Listed Concession Types
- 03 Concession Life: the Clock
- 04 Segments and Sub-Markets
- 05 Revenue Drivers: Generic Toll Build
- 06 Cost Structure: Margins and Leverage
- 07 Valuation Frameworks
- 08 Worked Examples: HarbourLink DCF and AeroGate RAB
- 09 Applied Cases: Demand-Risk Toll Roads
- 10 Applied Cases: Regulated Airports
- 11 Applied Cases: Mixed Groups and Mono-Asset
- 12 The Companies in This Primer
- 13 Key Metrics and Screening
- 14 Risks, Benchmarks and Case Study
- 15 Glossary and Cheat Sheet
41 pages · 15 sections · 2 worked examples
The Excel model
Educational material for professional use. This primer and its model are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and they are not personalised. Worked valuations use illustrative calibrations, not fair-value estimates for any company.
A toll road or an airport concession is an asset with an end date. The operator collects tolls or charges until the concession expires and the asset returns to the state, so its value is the cash it earns between now and then and nothing after. That makes a finite-life discounted cash flow with no terminal value the right tool, and it makes a perpetual multiple, applied without the remaining life in view, the commonest way to overpay.
The primer builds the tools in order: how concessions make money, the listed company types, concession life as the clock, then the toll build from traffic and tariff escalators and the cost side with margins and leverage. Two worked examples run from first input to value, a 30-year urban toll road on a finite-life DCF and a regulated airport on its regulatory asset base, before applied cases on Transurban, Vinci, Ferrovial, Getlink, Aena and Auckland Airport. Screening closes with remaining life, margin, leverage and the EV/EBITDA shortcut set against the DCF.
Free guides on the site cover the individual pieces, so you can revise one idea without reopening the PDF: the finite-life concession DCF, concession life and the expiry cliff, concession life remaining by company, toll road traffic and GDP, toll escalators and inflation, airport RAB regulation and regulated airports vs demand-risk toll roads. Research profiles for Transurban, Vinci, Ferrovial, Getlink, Aena and Auckland Airport run the same screens on filed results. The companion Excel model spans nine sheets, from the concession DCF through the traffic and tariff build, the regulated-versus- demand-risk switch and the leverage screen to a live sensitivity grid, so swapping in your own concession rebuilds the valuation from its remaining life up.
Sheets: README, Assumptions, Concession DCF, Sensitivity, Traffic & Tariff, Regulated vs Demand-Risk, Leverage, Multiples Cross-Check, Dashboard.
See this methodology applied to a real company:
Transurban (TCL) →