Satellite Constellation Capex and Economics

Constellation Builds Are a Separate Wallet from Operating Burn

Satellite operators can show positive or improving EBITDA while investing heavily in the next orbital generation. Capex intensity (capex ÷ revenue) captures that split. Operating cash burn, covered in the cash runway guide, measures whether current operations fund themselves. Constellation capex measures whether the fleet being sold today is paid for yet.

Confusing the two is common, because a strong operating margin says nothing about who is paying for next year’s satellites. Viasat and Globalstar are the clearest filed contrast: one funds a heavy build largely from its own operating cash, the other from a customer’s prepayment. The economics only make sense when build spend and operating margin are modelled on separate lines.

Historical Build Anchors

Large constellations require multi-billion upfront commitments before service revenue scales:

These numbers set investor expectations for cycle length and funding risk. They do not replace filer-specific capex/revenue ratios in peer screens.

FY2025 Capex Intensity Across the Six-Name Set

Filed FY2025 capex, or purchases of property, plant and equipment (PPE) where a filer reports it that way, divided by revenue:

Fiscal calendars differ: Viasat year ended 31 Mar 2025; Planet 31 Jan 2025; others calendar 31 Dec 2025.

Capex Intensity Screening Bands

Between 30% and 50% the band alone cannot tell build from refresh, so split capex into growth and maintenance before reading it. Above 50% signals a network still being paid for upfront. Globalstar is the live filed extreme, not a theoretical stress case.

Globalstar: Prepayment-Funded Build at 201%

Globalstar combines high capex intensity with contracted funding:

Apple prepayments fund the constellation build that high capex intensity flags. Without the $869M deferred revenue balance, 201% capex/revenue would imply aggressive equity needs. The Globalstar profile is the wholesale-contract economics case; the valuation guide covers why an EBITDA-positive operator can still be screened on EV/sales.

Viasat: EBITDA-Positive, Capex-Heavy, GAAP-Loss

Viasat illustrates operating cash generation during a heavy build:

Defence backlog provides multi-year visibility separate from constellation capex timing. See the government backlog guide and Viasat profile.

Iridium: Post-Build Maintenance at ~11.5%

After Iridium NEXT (~$3B historical cost, completed 2019), capex fell to maintenance levels:

Iridium is the contrast case for mature LEO economics. Capex has stopped dominating the story, and subscribers and OEBITDA carry it instead. The Iridium profile pairs with the business models guide.

Modelling Constellation Economics

1. Split operating profit and loss (EBITDA and operating cash flow, OCF) from investing capex on the cash-flow statement.
2. Compute capex ÷ revenue and map to screening bands (<15 / 15-30 / >50%).
3. Identify funding source: equity, debt, customer prepayments (GSAT), or operating cash (VSAT OCF +).
4. Cross-check backlog or deferred revenue for visibility on who pays for the build.
5. Do not use net loss as a proxy for build spend; use filed capex and disclosed prepayments.

Rocket Lab at ~26% sits in active refresh while still loss-making at adjusted EBITDA ($(101.2)M). Planet at ~20% is refreshing a data constellation with backlog $503.7M. The percentage alone does not say who is funding the build; the funding line item does.