Viasat (VSAT)
Viasat shows the gap between a GAAP accounting loss and real cash generation: EBITDA and operating cash flow both positive, set against constellation capex.
Educational analysis for professional use. This profile is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
Snapshot
Business Overview
Viasat's GAAP numbers and its cash generation tell two different stories: a large accounting loss sits over a business that already produces strong adjusted EBITDA and positive operating cash flow (see snapshot for growth, margin and the loss itself). FY2025 revenue was $4,519.6M for the year ended 31 March 2025. Market capitalisation was roughly $8.53B as of 10 June 2026 (135.8M shares × $62.80 NASDAQ close).
Firm backlog at 31 March 2025 splits between commercial and defence and advanced-technologies work (see snapshot for the amounts). That defence-backlog slice is the peer anchor the government backlog guide uses alongside Iridium's EMSS contract and Rocket Lab's SDA contract, though the government-revenue figure in the snapshot is a narrower cut: US government customers only, not the whole defence and advanced-technologies segment.
US fixed broadband subscriber and ARPU figures sit inside a business with a heavier defence and enterprise mix than the consumer LEO pure-plays in the business models guide, where Viasat occupies the in-orbit operator layer of the value chain.
How the Numbers Read
Non-cash items and constellation-related charges explain the gap between the GAAP loss and adjusted EBITDA (see snapshot for both). FY2025 operating cash flow was solidly positive: cash-generative at the operating level despite the GAAP headline.
Capital expenditures were $1.0B in FY2025, inside the active fleet-refresh band (15-30% of revenue, see snapshot) used in the constellation capex guide. Operating cash flow and constellation build spend are separate lines: positive operating cash flow does not mean the constellation phase is fully funded from current cash flow once capex is included.
Because adjusted EBITDA already exists at scale, Viasat is read on EBITDA margin and capex intensity rather than a pre-profit revenue multiple; the EV/sales guide uses Iridium as the filed profitable-operator cross-check for that method.
Valuation Framework
Viasat is read on adjusted EBITDA margin alongside capex intensity (see snapshot for both). The open question is whether that EBITDA converts to sustained free cash flow once constellation spend is subtracted, and whether the GAAP loss narrows as new satellites move from build to service.
Firm backlog covers roughly 0.8 years of revenue at the current run rate, but the definition differs from Rocket Lab's total backlog or Globalstar's deferred revenue, so Viasat's own firm-backlog figure is the one to use here rather than a blended peer metric.
What to Watch in the Financials
Operating cash flow versus capex. Capex has been running a little ahead of operating cash flow in dollar terms (see snapshot for both), even though the operating business is cash-generative. That gap sets near-term leverage and refinancing needs.
Defence backlog share. The defence and advanced-technologies slice of firm backlog gives programme visibility on the government side. Commercial conversion still sets broadband ARPU and subscriber trends on the other side of the business.
GAAP loss bridge. The gap between net loss and adjusted EBITDA comes from non-cash and constellation-related charges. Track which of those repeat versus which are one-offs as new satellites enter service.
US fixed broadband subscribers. Subscriber adds and churn against fixed wireless and terrestrial broadband competitors (see snapshot for the current base and ARPU) set the consumer leg of the model.
Key Risks
Constellation capex overhang. Capex intensity during an active fleet refresh can absorb positive operating cash flow if build timelines slip or costs inflate.
GAAP versus adjusted gap. A persistent gap between adjusted EBITDA and GAAP results can still mean dilution or leverage risk if net losses continue and capex stays elevated.
Commercial backlog concentration. The commercial slice of firm backlog depends on aviation, maritime and broadband demand cycles, a different risk profile from the government-revenue share sitting alongside it.
Space & Satellites Sector Primer
Revenue ramp, margin and capex are the inputs. This primer takes both a pre-profit builder and a profitable operator to a discounted cash-flow value against an EV/sales screen.
The Excel model is the primer's two worked valuations live across 12 sheets: a ten-year free-cash-flow DCF for a profitable operator, and a pre-profit ramp builder that fades losses to a target margin, each with a cash-runway and capex bridge. Change the growth path, the exit multiple or the capex intensity and the value moves.