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Defence & Aerospace

Space & Satellites Sector Primer

A 40-page primer plus Excel valuation model on space and satellite equity analysis: EV/sales screens, cash runway, constellation capex and backlog definitions.

15 Sections 40 Pages PDF + Excel

PDF Only

The full primer in PDF format

£25 / ~$32
  • 40-page sector primer
  • Worked valuations
  • Screening thresholds
Buy PDF - £25

Excel Model

Plug-and-play valuation template

£45 / ~$58
  • Pre-built valuation model
  • Sensitivity tables
  • Scenario toggles
Buy Model - £45
Best Value

PDF + Model

Everything you need in one package

£59 / ~$76 £70
  • 40-page sector primer
  • Valuation model (.xlsx)
  • Save £11 vs buying separately
Buy Bundle - £59
Complete Defence & Aerospace Library

Three primers, three Excel models

Defence Primes, Commercial Aerospace, and Space & Satellites. Everything at ~25% off

£210 £159 / ~$205
Buy All - £159

Inside the primer

The 15-section contents, a worked valuation page, and the Excel dashboard.

The seven-year ramp schedule: revenue compounding as margin fades from -17% to +25% and free cash flow turns from a $328M burn to positive, the ramp DCF landing about $2.0B against a 40x EV/sales screen, with the re-run sensitivity of exit multiple against mature margin below.

Table of Contents

  1. 01 How Space Companies Make Money
  2. 02 Listed Company Types
  3. 03 The Profitability and Constellation Lifecycle
  4. 04 Segments and Sub-Markets
  5. 05 Revenue Drivers: Generic Build
  6. 06 Cost Structure: Capex, Backlog and Runway
  7. 07 Valuation Frameworks
  8. 08 Worked Example: Pre-Profit Ramp Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
  9. 09 Worked Example: Profitable-Operator FCF DCF
  10. 10 Applied Cases: Launch and Connectivity
  11. 11 Applied Cases: Data, Wholesale and Distress
  12. 12 Key Metrics and Screening
  13. 13 Risks, Benchmarks and Case Study
  14. 14 Glossary of Essential Terms
  15. 15 Quick Reference Cheat Sheet

40 pages · 15 sections · 2 worked valuations

The Excel model

The model's sensitivity view: two live grids, the pre-profit builder and the profitable operator, each re-running its full DCF at every mature-margin and exit-multiple pair, with the value surface plotted and each centre reproducing its headline.

Educational material for professional use. This primer and its model are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and they are not personalised. Worked valuations use illustrative calibrations, not fair-value estimates for any company.

Space equities split into two kinds that need different tools. Connectivity operators with real earnings are valued on EBITDA and subscribers. Launch providers, constellation builders and data names that have not reached profit are valued on revenue multiples, cash runway and constellation capex, and the first question is whether they survive to the earnings the multiple assumes.

The primer builds the tools in order: the three monetisation layers, the listed company types, the lifecycle from build to mature fleet, then backlog and deferred-revenue definitions and the capex a constellation demands. Two worked examples run from first input to value per share, a profitable LEO operator DCF and a pre-profit ramp with its funding bridge, before applied cases on Rocket Lab, Iridium, Viasat, EchoStar, Globalstar and Planet Labs. Screening closes with EV/sales bands, runway in years and government mix.

Free guides on the site cover the individual pieces, so you can revise one idea without reopening the PDF: space business models, government revenue share across space stocks, cash runway in pre-profit names, constellation capex economics, LEO vs GEO satellite economics, government contract backlog and EV/sales for space stocks. Research profiles for Rocket Lab, Iridium, Viasat, EchoStar, Globalstar and Planet Labs run the same screens on filed results. The companion Excel model spans twelve sheets, from a profitable-operator tab and a pre-profit builder through the runway, EV/sales and backlog screens to a live sensitivity grid, so swapping in your own name rebuilds the valuation from its stage up.

Sheets: Quick Start, Instructions, Assumptions, Profitable Operator, Pre-Profit Builder, Engine Mapper, Valuation Summary, Cash Runway & Capex, EV-Sales Screen, Backlog & Government Mix, Sensitivity, Dashboard.

See this methodology applied to a real company:

Rocket Lab (RKLB) →