Agribusiness
Agribusiness Guides
Free guides to fertiliser producers, ag processors and merchants, and salmon farmers: nutrient costs and the cost curve, board crush and working capital, farming cost per kg and biological risk.
21 free guides · 17 company profiles · 3 primers, each with an Excel model
Fertilisers
Nutrient prices, the gas-linked nitrogen cost curve and earnings rebuilt at mid-cycle
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Nitrogen, Phosphate, Potash Explained
The three crop nutrients, how each is produced, why cost drivers differ by N/P/K, and how Nutrien, CF Industries, and Mosaic illustrate integrated versus specialised models.
Natural Gas and Nitrogen Fertiliser Costs
How the Haber-Bosch route links gas to ammonia, why gas dominates the cost of nitrogen, the gap between US and European gas costs, and the gas sensitivities CF and Nutrien file.
Fertiliser Cost Curves Explained
How nitrogen, phosphate, and potash cost curves are set by gas access, rock integration, and ore grade, with FY2025 disclosed unit costs from Nutrien, Mosaic, and Intrepid Potash.
Fertiliser EBITDA per Tonne by Nutrient
FY2025 EBITDA per tonne sold for each nutrient business at Nutrien, CF Industries, Mosaic and ICL, why the tonne and the price basis belong on every figure, and how to rebuild it from price and cost.
Mid-Cycle Earnings for Fertilisers
Why LTM EBITDA fails at price extremes, Nutrien's own $7.0-7.5bn mid-cycle scenario, and how to rebuild normalised EBITDA from long-run nutrient and gas prices.
Reading the Crop-Nutrient Cycle
How corn and soy margins drive fertiliser application, what the 2026 Hormuz supply shock did to urea, and the lags between grain economics, nutrient prices and producer earnings.
Fertiliser Price Benchmarks: FOB vs CFR
What FOB, CFR and CIF mean for a fertiliser price, how producers report the prices they realise, and why a price and a cost give a true margin only on the same delivery basis.
Company research 6
Ag Processing & Trading
Board crush, merchant working capital and ROIC against WACC
7 guides · 5 profiles
Guides 7
Crush Margins Explained (Soybean)
The CME board-crush formula, the crush ADM executes against the board, and why a through-cycle model uses a long-run crush.
The ABCD Agricultural Traders
ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus as origination-and-processing merchants; private-peer scale, Bunge's post-Viterra four-segment map, and why no filing uses the ABCD label.
Origination, Processing and Ingredients
The ag value chain from farm origination through crush and refining to specialty ingredients: ADM and Bunge segment maps, and why INGR, DAR and ANDE need different lenses.
Working Capital in Commodity Trading
Why ag merchants carry large inventories and receivables: ADM operating WC $7.89B, Bunge RMI $11.36B, ANDE RMI $1.0B, and why adjusted leverage differs from GAAP net debt/EBITDA.
Valuing Ag Processors (EV/EBITDA, ROIC)
Normalising EBITDA on a long-run crush, ROIC against WACC, and filed FY2025 returns on capital at Ingredion, Bunge and ADM, each on its own definition.
Ag Processing Margin per Tonne by Segment
Segment profit divided by tonnes, from grain trading to crushing to ingredients: how to work it out, why the profit line and the tonnes must match, and how to convert to bushels.
ROIC vs Adjusted ROIC in Ag Processing
Why ADM, Bunge and Ingredion each file two returns on capital: which adjustment moves the earnings and which moves the capital, and why returns compare only on one definition.
Company research 5
Aquaculture
Farming cost and EBIT per kg, licence capacity and biological risk
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Salmon Farming Economics: Cost per kg
What Mowi's cost in box and Grieg's farming cost include, and why each farmer's EBIT per kg has to be read on its own definition before comparing farmers.
Salmon Spot Prices and the Cycle
SISALMONI versus Fish Pool versus the SSB export price, the 2025 supply surge, and the reference prices salmon farmers file.
EV/kg: Valuing Aquaculture Capacity
Enterprise value per kg of gutted-weight harvest capacity, how to strip non-farming assets out of EV, and why EV/kg is an analyst convention no company files.
Biological Risk: Lice, Mortality, Regulation
Norwegian sea lice limits, traffic-light capacity effects, FY2025 mortality and survival markers at Mowi, Lerøy and Grieg, and how biology flows to EBIT/kg.
Licence and MAB Capacity Constraints
Maximum allowed biomass and the harvest lag, SalMar 173,118 t vs Lerøy 117,500 t vs Grieg 17,800 t, how Norway adds capacity, and how the Faroes regulate instead.
Operational EBIT vs Reported EBIT in Salmon Farming
How IAS 41 values fish still in the sea at forward prices, what operational EBIT removes, and the FY2025 reconciliations at five salmon farmers.
Salmon Farming Profit per kg by Country
Mowi's operational EBIT per kg across its seven farming countries, why the order is price less cost rather than cost, and how mortality and processing profit set it.
Company research 6
The Agribusiness library: all three primers with their Excel models, £159 (£210 bought separately). Compare the Agribusiness primers