Agribusiness · Fertilisers
Intrepid Potash (IPI)
A small US potash and Trio producer reporting in short tons: FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $63.1M, potash at $353/st and potash gross margin of $18.2M.
Selborne Research · · Equity Research Profile
Educational analysis for professional use. This profile is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
Snapshot
- Reporting Unit
- Short ton (0.907 t)
- Adj. EBITDA (FY2025)
- $63.1M
- Potash Price, Net of Freight (FY2025)
- $353/st ($389/t)
- Potash Segment Gross Margin (FY2025)
- $18.2M ($63/st)
- Trio Segment Gross Margin (FY2025)
- $33.4M
- Potash Produced (FY2025)
- 280,000 st
- Net Cash (31 Dec 2025)
- $81M
A Small US Potash and Trio Producer
Intrepid Potash's filings teach two traps: the short ton, and a price and a cost per ton measured on different bases. It is a small US producer of potash and Trio, a potassium, magnesium and sulphur fertiliser (the mineral langbeinite), with a small oilfield solutions business alongside; it makes no nitrogen or phosphate. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $63.1M. It produced 280,000 short tons of potash and sold 289,000; the figures per ton below use tons sold.
Intrepid reports per short ton of 2,000 lb (0.907 metric tonnes). This profile keeps its figures on that basis and gives metric equivalents where they sit beside other producers.
Price and Cost on Different Bases
Intrepid's potash price less its potash cost per ton is not a margin. In FY2025 it realised $353 a short ton for potash, net of freight, and its cost of goods sold (COGS) was $328 a short ton. The price leaves out $24.6M of by-product sales, such as salt and magnesium chloride. The cost spreads the whole segment's costs, by-products included, over potash tons alone. One less the other gives $25, which understates what the segment earned.
The filed figure is the potash segment's gross margin: $18.2M, or $63 a short ton sold, after depreciation. Trio realised $367 a short ton against COGS of $240, and its segment gross margin of $33.4M was larger than potash's. The EBITDA per tonne guide sets Intrepid's potash margin beside other producers'.
How the Numbers Read
Intrepid had net cash of $81M at 31 December 2025: cash of $83.5M less finance leases of $2.8M, with its revolving credit facility undrawn.
How You Would Value a Producer Like This
Rebuild earnings at a long-run potash price, but only once price and cost sit on the same basis and unit. Intrepid's figures are per short ton and net of freight; the world benchmark is per metric tonne and landed in Brazil. The mid-cycle earnings guide sets out the method.
Scale matters here. Intrepid's 280,000 short tons (about 254,000 t) compare with Mosaic's 8.8M t and Nutrien's 13.97M t, so fixed costs sit on few tons and a change in output moves cost per ton sharply.
What to Watch in the Financials
Segment gross margin per ton. Each year's potash and Trio figures show what the segments earn on a basis that matches price and cost.
Key Risks
Weather. Much of Intrepid's potash comes from solar evaporation, where brine is left in ponds for the sun to dry, so weather moves output. At this size, lost output lifts cost per ton quickly.
Four hypothetical producers, in US nitrogen, European nitrogen, phosphate and potash, valued year by year as nutrient prices recover to mid-cycle, set beside the through-cycle multiple.
- 15 sections, from how a nutrient producer earns to a year-by-year DCF and leverage on mid-cycle EBITDA
- 43 pages
- a US nitrogen producer on Henry Hub gas, a European nitrogen producer, a phosphate producer and a potash miner
- 4 producer engines
- listed nitrogen, phosphate and potash producers on filed FY2025 figures
- 6-company screen
The Excel model is the primer's mid-cycle valuation live across 13 sheets: four producer tabs (US nitrogen on Henry Hub gas, European nitrogen, phosphate and potash), each walking nutrient prices from the starting point back to mid-cycle through a ten-year free-cash-flow schedule with working capital and sustaining capex; a valuation summary setting each DCF beside the multiple cross-check and splitting the gap between them; cycle scenarios, a cost curve with a gas cost curve, a leverage screen on mid-cycle EBITDA and two live sensitivity grids, urea price against the exit multiple and against the gas price. Change the nutrient price, the gas price or the WACC and the value moves.
See what's in the Fertilisers Sector Primer →£25 PDF · £59 with the Excel model · £159 for all three Agribusiness industries
Learn the Concepts
Understand the valuation frameworks and metrics used in this analysis.
Fertiliser Cost Curves Explained
How nitrogen, phosphate, and potash cost curves are set by gas access, rock integration, and ore grade, with FY2025 disclosed unit costs from Nutrien, Mosaic, and Intrepid Potash.
Reading the Crop-Nutrient Cycle
How corn and soy margins drive fertiliser application, what the 2026 Hormuz supply shock did to urea, and the lags between grain economics, nutrient prices and producer earnings.
Mid-Cycle Earnings for Fertilisers
Why LTM EBITDA fails at price extremes, Nutrien's own $7.0-7.5bn mid-cycle scenario, and how to rebuild normalised EBITDA from long-run nutrient and gas prices.
Fertiliser Price Benchmarks: FOB vs CFR
What FOB, CFR and CIF mean for a fertiliser price, how producers report the prices they realise, and why a price and a cost give a true margin only on the same delivery basis.
Fertiliser EBITDA per Tonne by Nutrient
FY2025 EBITDA per tonne sold for each nutrient business at Nutrien, CF Industries, Mosaic and ICL, why the tonne and the price basis belong on every figure, and how to rebuild it from price and cost.