Healthcare
Healthcare Guides
rNPV frameworks, patent-cliff erosion, biotech runway maths, and medtech installed-base pull-through for pharma, biotech, and device equity analysts.
21 free guides · 18 company profiles · 3 primers, each with an Excel model
Pharmaceuticals
Patent cliffs, pipeline rNPV and a year-by-year sum-of-parts
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Patent Cliffs and LOE Erosion
How loss-of-exclusivity erodes branded drug revenue: generic unit-share curves, net-price erosion by competitor count, biosimilar contrast via Humira, and a worked fade on a $3,000M brand.
rNPV: Valuing Drug Pipelines
Risk-adjusted NPV for drug pipelines: PoS-weighted cash flows, an 8.5% WACC built on a 4.50% 10-year Treasury rate, and a worked Phase III asset at $1,621M.
Drug Development Probability of Success
How probability of success enters a drug valuation: the chain from the current phase, why committed trial spend is not weighted, and biologics vs small molecules.
Pharma Revenue Concentration Risk
Largest-product revenue share as a risk screen: FY2025 ladder from Pfizer Eliquis 12.7% to Lilly tirzepatide 56.0%, with 25–30% and 40% concentration screens.
The Pharma GAAP Payout Trap
Why Pfizer ~126% and AbbVie ~276% GAAP dividend payout ratios mislead: non-cash charges on acquired assets, one-off gains, and how to test pharma dividends against cash.
Pharma Patent Expiry Dates by Company
Patent and IRA Medicare price dates from six large drugmakers' filings, product by product: where the dates sit in a 10-K, what settled generic entry means, and why one revenue-at-risk figure misleads.
Pharma R&D Intensity by Company
R&D as a share of revenue at six large drugmakers: where acquired R&D and write-downs are booked, what the PhRMA industry average covers, and why spend is not output.
Company research 6
Biotech
Cash runway, the probability chain and multi-programme rNPV
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Biotech Cash Runway Explained
Cash runway formula for pre-profit biotech: liquidity divided by quarterly operating cash outflow, the 4- and 8-quarter reference points, and why net loss is the wrong denominator.
rNPV for Clinical-Stage Biotech
Single-asset rNPV for clinical biotech: PoS-weighted cash flows at 10.0–10.5% discount, a Phase II worked example at 15.1% PoS, equity equals rNPV plus net cash.
Clinical Trial Success Rates by Phase
FDA phase definitions and BIO/Informa success rates: 52.0% to 28.9% to 57.8% to 90.6%, cumulative 7.9% LOA from Phase I; the later Citeline 2014–2023 data give 6.7%.
Biotech Franchise Concentration
Lead-franchise revenue share for biotech: Vertex cystic fibrosis 92.9%, Gilead HIV 70.5%, Moderna COVID 93.1%; growing versus shrinking franchises and partnership booking traps.
Biotech Partnership Economics
Biotech profit-share partnerships: Regeneron Dupixent $5.2B profit share versus Sanofi $17.8B global sales, the 3.4x booking trap, and rNPV on economic share not partner gross.
Clinical Trial Success Rates by Therapeutic Area
Why one industry-wide approval rate misprices pipeline assets: odds of approval by disease area and phase, where each area loses its drugs, and when an area rate should replace the average.
Platform vs Single-Asset Biotech
How programmes that share one technology fail together: a worked example of correlated pipeline risk, the sum-of-programmes floor, and what FDA platform designation does and does not do.
Company research 6
Medtech
Installed base, organic growth and a franchise DCF that pays for growth
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Razor-and-Blade Economics in Medtech
How capital platforms convert to recurring pull-through: ISRG 84% recurring mix, I&A at $1,810 per da Vinci procedure, recurring-revenue screens, and a worked 5,000-system example.
Organic vs Reported Growth in Medtech
Strip M&A before comparing medtech growth: BSX Urology +4.7% organic vs +23.1% reported, FY2025 organic growth for six peers, and why multiples follow organic not headline growth.
Installed Base and Pull-Through
Systems, users, and procedures as the medtech demand engine: filed installed-base KPIs for ISRG and ABT Libre, SYK Mako cumulative procedures, and the pull-through arithmetic.
Growth-Adjusted P/E for Devices
Forward P/E divided by organic growth: why one headline multiple means different things at 6% and 12% growth, and which growth figure to divide by.
Procedure Volumes: the Demand Unit
Clinical utilisation as medtech demand: EW TAVR 74% concentration, ISRG 3.15M procedures, SYK Mako cumulative volume, and revenue without a capital installed-base KPI.
Medtech Gross Margins by Company
Why device gross margin tracks product mix: six filers on one basis, where amortisation sits, a diversified group split by segment, and how operating margin reorders the list.
GAAP vs Adjusted Operating Margin in Medtech
What device makers leave out of adjusted operating margin: amortisation from past deals, restructuring, litigation and share-based pay, how six filers define adjusted, and which margin a DCF should carry.
Company research 6
The Healthcare library: all three primers with their Excel models, £159 (£210 bought separately). Compare the Healthcare primers