Chemicals
Chemicals Guides
Spread definitions, feedstock cost curves and mid-cycle EBITDA for commodity producers; pricing power and returns for specialty chemicals; contracts and supply modes for industrial gases.
21 free guides · 16 company profiles · 3 primers, each with an Excel model
Commodity Chemicals
Chain margins, the cost curve and a DCF that runs the cycle from trough to mid-cycle
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Ethylene and Polyethylene Spreads
Cracker margin vs integrated PE margin vs colloquial spread; FY2025 NA PE at $580/t vs $830/t history; illustrative ethane cracker margin 12¢/lb.
Ethane vs Naphtha: Feedstock Advantage
Ethane turns 80-84% of its weight into ethylene, naphtha 29-34%. Why US Gulf Coast crackers sit low on the global cost curve and naphtha units idle first.
Chemical Industry Cost Curves
Feedstock as the primary axis of the ethylene cost curve; oil-vs-gas shifts; naphtha co-products; marginal producers idle first in downturns.
Steam Cracker Yields by Feedstock
Five cracker feeds ranked by ethylene yield, from ethane to gas oil: tonnes of feed per tonne of ethylene, and the co-products that grow as the feed gets heavier.
Mid-Cycle EBITDA for Commodity Chemicals
Why last year's EBITDA misleads at a cycle low, how Dow, Olin, Methanex and LyondellBasell frame mid-cycle earnings, and how to build it when none is filed.
Reading the Petrochemical Cycle
Spread mean-reversion, utilisation as early warning, trough language across the peer set, and why normalised prices differ from spot prints.
Reported vs Adjusted EBITDA in Chemicals
What six producers add back to reach adjusted EBITDA, why write-downs and closures dominate a bad year, and which figure answers which question.
Company research 6
Specialty Chemicals
Pass-through, margin stability and whether ROIC earns the premium multiple
7 guides · 6 profiles
Guides 7
Specialty vs Commodity Chemicals
Performance versus molecule-cost economics; S&P risk scores specialty '2' vs commodity '4'; filed margin spreads across SHW, ECL, PPG, DD, IFF and ALB.
Pricing Power and Raw-Material Pass-Through
Scope pass-through convention; filed FY2025 bridges at ECL (+2% price), PPG (+1%) and SHW Q4 PSG; gross margin stability as evidence.
ROIC in Specialty Chemicals
Damodaran sector return on capital 10.95% vs WACC 7.25% (+3.70 pp spread); why FY2025 issuer ROIC is absent; how to read the spread.
Paint and Coatings Business Economics
Architectural vs industrial segment margins: SHW PSG 22.5% vs PCG 13.9%; PPG Performance 20.8% vs Industrial 13.4%; consolidated gross margins SHW 48.8% vs PPG 41.3%.
Specialty Chemicals Gross Margins by Company
Six filers ranked on FY2025 gross margin with FY2024 beside it: why the order follows what each sells and how, where the bases differ, and when a change reflects price.
Lithium Carbonate vs Lithium Hydroxide
Two lithium products with different feed routes and cathode uses, reported in one unit: how to convert any lithium tonnage to LCE, and why a realised price differs from an index.
Valuing Specialty Chemicals (Premium P/E)
Why trailing P/E fails; Damodaran EV/EBITDA +56% specialty premium; forward P/E ~18-24x band; why commodity-linked earnings weaken the case for a premium.
Company research 6
Industrial Gases
Supply modes, take-or-pay contracts and a sum-of-the-parts valuation
7 guides · 4 profiles
Guides 7
Industrial Gas Business Models
On-site, merchant and packaged channels; contract lengths and minimum purchases; FY2025 mix contrast (LIN packaged 35% vs APD on-site 52%).
Take-or-Pay Contracts in Industrial Gases
AI Large Industries take-or-pay; LIN minimum purchases; APD fixed monthly fees; ~$62bn and ~$26bn RPOs; why wording differs but the cash-flow floor is the same.
Why Industrial Gases Trade at Premium Multiples
Contracted cash flows, pipeline density, oligopoly structure; ~12-16x EV/EBITDA vs commodity chemicals ~6-9x.
ROCE and the Gases Oligopoly
Four filers, four definitions of return on capital (LIN 24.2%, AI 11.2%, APD 10.1%, NSHD 7.1%), and why each is read against its own cost of capital.
Hydrogen and the Clean-Energy Backlog
How four gases majors disclose clean-energy backlog: Linde's $10.0bn total, Air Liquide's €4.9bn, Nippon Sanso's ~32% sustainable share and Air Products' projects and exits.
Project Backlog vs RPO in Industrial Gases
Why a gases backlog counts capital still to spend and remaining performance obligations count revenue owed, what each filer puts in them, and one plant worked through both.
Industrial Gas Margins by Company
EBITDA and operating margins at four gases majors, each on its own basis, and why energy billed on at cost moves the percentage but not the profit.
Company research 4
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