Chemicals · Industrial Gases
Hydrogen and the Clean-Energy Backlog
How gases majors disclose clean-energy backlog: Linde's $10.0bn total, Air Liquide's opportunity book, Nippon Sanso's capex share, Air Products' projects.
Selborne Research · Industrial Gases coverage: 7 guides, 4 company profiles, a primer and Excel model
Educational analysis for professional use. This guide is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
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Backlog Is Not One Number Across the Sector
No gases major files a hydrogen backlog in dollars, and each of the four reports clean-energy exposure its own way. Add them into one headline and you rank disclosure formats, not execution risk.
Read each format on its own terms, then check the contracted demand behind it (the off-take) and the debt taken on to build it. Most of these backlogs count capital still to spend; the backlog vs RPO guide explains why that differs from revenue owed.
Four Disclosure Formats
| Company | Backlog metric | Filed value | Clean-energy framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde | Total project backlog | $10.0bn (31 Dec 2025) | >$7bn of sale-of-gas projects being built; two-thirds for clean-energy customers |
| Air Liquide | Investment backlog | €4.9bn (31 Dec 2025) | Projects due for decision within 12 months: €4.6bn, 25% of them energy transition (about €1.15bn) |
| Nippon Sanso | Approved capex backlog | ¥180bn (31 Mar 2026) | 32% classed as sustainable: helping towards carbon neutrality, including hydrogen production |
| Air Products | Named projects only | no single hydrogen total | NEOM, Louisiana, exits in 2025 and 2026 (below) |
Linde: One Total With a Clean-Energy Share
Most of Linde’s project backlog is sale-of-gas projects: plants Linde builds and owns at a customer’s site, then sells gas from under a long contract. Its 2025 shareholder letter says two-thirds of those being built are for clean-energy customers. So the exposure rests on signed customer contracts.
Air Liquide: Signed Backlog Plus an Opportunity Book
Air Liquide keeps signed investments (the backlog) apart from projects it expects to decide within twelve months. The energy-transition slice sits in the unsigned book, so do not count it as a second backlog.
Nippon Sanso: A Tagged Share of Approved Capex
Nippon Sanso counts investments its group companies’ boards have approved but not yet placed in service, each above about ¥500m, and classes part of that total as having sustainable traits: plant modernisation and hydrogen production that help it or its customers towards carbon neutrality, including HyCO plants (which make hydrogen and carbon monoxide together). At 31 March 2025 it reported ¥140bn with 45% labelled environmental and hydrogen related. The label changed, so the two shares do not compare.
Air Products: Named Projects, Two Rounds of Exits
Air Products reports project by project, and since early 2025 it has cancelled several:
| Project / event | Status (filed) |
|---|---|
| NEOM green hydrogen, Saudi Arabia | 80% complete (Feb 2025), 90% (Nov 2025); first product 2027 (Nov 2025 slides). June 2026: finalising a deal for Yara to market its ammonia |
| February 2025 exits | Three US projects cancelled: World Energy sustainable aviation fuel, Massena NY green hydrogen, Texas carbon monoxide. Announced as a pre-tax charge of up to $3.1bn; about $2.4bn booked (FY2025 10-K) |
| Louisiana Clean Energy Complex | Nov 2025: start-up 2028, $2bn committed, no new commitments until off-take and partners were signed. 26 June 2026: decided to exit |
| Casa Grande, Arizona (liquid hydrogen) and smaller projects | Exit decided 26 June 2026; with Louisiana, a pre-tax charge of up to $2.9bn expected in fiscal Q3 2026 (8-K, 30 June 2026) |
| TotalEnergies contract | 15-year take-or-pay for 70,000 t/yr of green hydrogen from 2030, cited under the 35% of NEOM output sold on take-or-pay (January 2025 proxy filing) |
Contracted Demand Decides Which Projects Survive
A backlog line is only as good as the contract that buys its output. Air Products’ 15-year take-or-pay with TotalEnergies is the filed example of a green hydrogen project anchored by a customer who must pay. Linde’s clean-energy backlog sits on supply contracts with customers already investing.
Louisiana shows the other side. Air Products had said it would commit no more capital there without firm off-take agreements. In June 2026 it concluded the returns would not meet its criteria and walked away.
Modelling Clean-Energy Backlog
Take each backlog in the format its company files, and do not invent a hydrogen-only total where the filer reports projects, as Air Products does. Count revenue as contracted only where a contract is filed or named: a take-or-pay, a minimum purchase or a fixed fee. And watch net debt against EBITDA while project capex runs ahead of contracted cash flow, because the debt arrives years before the revenue.
Industrial Gases Sector Primer
Contracted on-site cash flow valued year by year with a renewal value, the merchant and packaged slice on a market multiple, a backlog adder and a downturn test.
- 15 sections, from the three supply modes to a sum-of-the-parts valuation, a downturn test and ROCE against WACC
- 43 pages
- a packaged-and-merchant global leader and an on-site-heavy major
- 2 worked archetypes
- the listed gas majors on filed supply-mode mix, return on capital and backlog
- 4-company screen
The Excel model is the primer's sum-of-the-parts valuation live across 11 sheets: two archetypes (a global leader and an on-site-heavy major), each splitting EBITDA by supply mode, valuing the contracted on-site slice as escalated year-by-year cash flow over the contract plus a renewal value and the cyclical slice on a market multiple, adding a backlog value and deducting net debt; an on-site contract schedule; a supply-mode downturn test; ROCE against WACC; and a live sensitivity grid. Change the on-site share, the contract discount rate or the cyclical multiple and the value moves.
See what's in the Industrial Gases Sector Primer →£25 PDF · £59 with the Excel model · £159 for all three Chemicals industries
Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Linde disclose its clean-energy backlog?
- As one total: a project backlog of $10.0bn at 31 December 2025. Its 2025 shareholder letter adds that Linde is executing more than $7bn of sale-of-gas projects, two-thirds of them for clean-energy customers. Linde files no hydrogen-only dollar figure.
- What is Air Products' hydrogen backlog in dollars?
- None: it reports project by project. On 26 June 2026 it decided to exit the Louisiana Clean Energy Complex, due to start up in 2028 as of November 2025, and a liquid hydrogen plant in Arizona, expecting a pre-tax charge of up to $2.9bn. Its February 2025 exit from three US projects brought about $2.4bn of pre-tax charges.
- How do Air Liquide and Nippon Sanso frame energy-transition backlog?
- Air Liquide: investment backlog of €4.9bn at 31 Dec 2025, plus €4.6bn of projects it expects to decide within twelve months, 25% of them energy transition (about €1.15bn). Nippon Sanso: approved capex backlog of ¥180bn at 31 March 2026, 32% of it classed as having sustainable traits (projects that help the group or its customers towards carbon neutrality, including hydrogen production).
- Why does backlog disclosure format matter for valuation?
- Because one hydrogen dollar headline would add four different measures together. Match the metric to each filing, then check the contracted demand and the debt behind it.
Read next
Take-or-Pay Contracts in Industrial Gases
AI Large Industries take-or-pay; LIN minimum purchases; APD fixed monthly fees; ~$62bn and ~$26bn RPOs; why wording differs but the cash-flow floor is the same.
Industrial Gas Business Models
On-site, merchant and packaged channels; contract lengths and minimum purchases; FY2025 mix contrast (LIN packaged 35% vs APD on-site 52%).
Project Backlog vs RPO in Industrial Gases
Why a gases backlog counts capital still to spend and remaining performance obligations count revenue owed, what each filer puts in them, and one plant worked through both.
See it applied
These company profiles apply the concepts from this guide to real public companies.