Nutrien (NTR)

The Integrated Benchmark

Nutrien makes all three nutrients and sells to farmers through its own retail network, so it shows how the pieces of a fertiliser business add up. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $6,046M. Potash earned $2,254M and nitrogen $2,147M, each just over a third of the total; phosphate earned $382M and Retail $1,736M. Those four add to $6,519M; $473M of corporate and other costs sits outside them. Nutrien produced 13.97M t of potash.

Its potash is cheap to produce. The controllable cash cost of product manufactured (COPM), the plant costs its managers control, was $58/t in FY2025, leaving out depreciation, royalties, gas and carbon taxes. Its ammonia COPM was also $58/t, but that figure leaves out gas, the largest cost, so how Nutrien's nitrogen costs rank against rivals' depends on its gas price instead: $3.53/MMBtu (million British thermal units) for the nitrogen segment.

The N/P/K guide sets Nutrien beside nitrogen-only CF Industries and Mosaic's phosphate and potash.

How the Numbers Read

Nutrien measures its potash price net of freight, so it sits below the Brazil import price, which includes shipping. Its FY2025 average net selling price was $252/t: $286 in North America and $235 offshore. Add freight before comparing the two.

Nutrien estimates that each $1/MMBtu move in the NYMEX gas price (US gas futures, settled at Henry Hub) changes consolidated adjusted EBITDA by $180M and adjusted EPS by $0.30. The gas and nitrogen guide shows why gas is most of the cash cost of ammonia and how such sensitivities turn into EBITDA.

Adjusted net debt was $11,060M at 31 December 2025, 1.8x adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.2x in 2024. The ratio moves with nutrient prices as well as with debt.

How You Would Value a Business Like This

Value the producing segments at long-run nutrient prices and Retail on its own. Nutrien's mid-cycle scenario, from its 2024 Investor Day, used potash at $400/t, New Orleans urea at $400 per short ton, Tampa ammonia at $500/t and New Orleans DAP at $515 per short ton, giving adjusted EBITDA of $7.0-7.5bn.

A short ton is 2,000 lb, so the urea and DAP prices are about $441/t and $568/t, below the long-run $480/t and $580/t used in the Excel model that comes with the primer. Its potash price names no delivery point, so it cannot be compared directly with the model's $340/t delivered to Brazil. The two sets of prices give different mid-cycle EBITDA; pick one set and keep to it. For scale, Nutrien realised $490/t net for urea and ESN, its controlled-release urea, in FY2025 (2025 annual report, filed with its Form 40-F). The mid-cycle earnings guide explains why an LTM multiple misleads when prices sit far from long-run levels.

Retail sold $7.3bn of crop nutrients in FY2025, out of Retail's $17.6bn of sales (Nutrien's total was $26.9bn), so its revenue moves with nutrient prices. It earns a distributor's margin, which is why a sum of the parts values it separately.

What to Watch in the Financials

Potash cost against price. Potash cost of goods sold was $111/t against the $252/t net selling price in FY2025, a gross margin of $141/t. The $58/t controllable cash cost is per tonne produced and leaves out depreciation (about $43/t), royalties (about $7) and gas and carbon taxes (about $3); adding them back gives the $111.

Retail margin per tonne. Retail earned $120 of gross margin a tonne on 11.86M t of crop nutrients in FY2025 ($118 in FY2024): what the distribution arm makes on each tonne it passes to farmers.

Key Risks

Retail stock. Retail holds inventory, so a fall in nutrient prices can squeeze its margin while stock bought at higher prices is sold.