Mosaic (MOS)

Mosaic Mines Its Own Raw Materials

Mosaic mines its own phosphate rock and potash. It makes no nitrogen fertiliser, the nutrient made from natural gas, so its costs run through rock, sulphur and ammonia rather than through gas directly. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $2,421M. The three segments earned $2,667M: Potash $1,183M, Phosphates $917M and Mosaic Fertilizantes, its Brazilian production and distribution arm, $567M. The other $246M is corporate costs and items outside the segments.

In 2025 Mosaic produced 8.8M t of finished potash and 6.3M t of concentrated phosphate crop nutrients. The per-tonne figures below use the 8.97M t of potash it sold, which can differ from output as stock moves.

Its gas exposure is indirect. Phosphate fertiliser needs ammonia, which Mosaic partly makes at its own Faustina plant and partly buys. Its potash solution mine, which dissolves potash underground and pumps it to the surface, also burns fuel.

In FY2025 ammonia cost Mosaic $468 a tonne and phosphate rock $80 a tonne, a blended average of rock it mines and rock it buys. Sulphur rose from $157 to $306 a long ton (1.016 tonnes) across the four quarters, $236 on average. Conversion, the plant work that turns these into finished phosphate, cost $125 a tonne of product in cash. Mosaic's 10-K gives the recipe for a tonne of DAP: 1.6-1.7 tonnes of rock, about 0.40 long tons of sulphur and about 0.23 tonnes of ammonia. At 1.65 tonnes of rock that is $132 of rock, $94 of sulphur, $108 of ammonia and $125 of conversion: about $459 a tonne. Potash, sold as MOP (muriate of potash), cost $75 a tonne to produce in cash. The cost curve guide uses these figures for its phosphate and potash examples.

CF Industries and Yara make ammonia from gas and sell it as nitrogen fertiliser; Mosaic uses it only to make phosphate. The N/P/K guide sets out where it sits among the three nutrients.

How the Numbers Read

Mosaic measures its prices at its own mines and plants, before freight. In FY2025 it realised $255/t for potash at the mine and $670/t for DAP (diammonium phosphate) at the plant. The World Bank's 2025 averages were $347.5/t for potash landed in Brazil and $685.2/t for DAP at US Gulf export ports. The potash gap is $92/t because the Brazil price carries freight and handling, with contract timing and customer mix inside it too. The DAP gap is only $15/t. Both prices are taken near the US Gulf plants, with no ocean freight between them.

Net debt was $4,777M at 31 December 2025, about two years of FY2025 adjusted EBITDA (1.97x).

To test Mosaic's gas exposure, move the ammonia price: gas reaches it mainly through the ammonia it makes or buys. Test phosphate earnings on sulphur and rock prices too.

How You Would Value a Business Like This

Value phosphate and potash separately, each at its own long-run price, because they earn different margins at different points in the cycle; the mid-cycle earnings guide shows how. Measure price and cost at the same place, the mine or the port.

The model's fictional potash producer sells at a long-run $340/t landed in Brazil, so its cost is carried to Brazil too: a $75/t mine cash cost, $35/t of royalties and resource taxes and $90/t of freight, close to the $92 gap above, $200/t in all. That leaves a margin of $140/t against the $340 price. Mosaic's FY2025 figures, taken at the mine, give a similar answer: its $255/t price less the $75/t cash cost and $35/t of royalties and Canadian resource taxes ($315.6M on 8.97M t sold) leaves about $145/t.

What to Watch in the Financials

Mosaic Fertilizantes. Its $567M comes from making and distributing fertiliser in Brazil, so it follows Brazilian farm demand as well as world nutrient prices.

Key Risks

Input prices. Ammonia and sulphur go straight into phosphate cost, and the DAP price need not rise when they do.