Yara International (YAR.OL)

European Gas and Global Nitrogen

Yara makes nitrogen fertiliser around the world but buys much of its gas at European prices, so it shows what a producer at the dear end of the nitrogen cost curve earns. FY2025 EBITDA excluding special items was $2,803M. Yara is listed in Oslo and reports in US dollars.

Its gas cost a weighted $10.0/MMBtu (million British thermal units) across its plants, excluding Babrala, its plant in India, and $13.2/MMBtu in Europe. It used 226.0M MMBtu and spent $2,242M on gas, 80% of its EBITDA. CF Industries paid $3.31/MMBtu and Nutrien's nitrogen plants $3.53/MMBtu, so Yara's gas cost three to four times as much. The gas and nitrogen guide sets the four figures side by side.

In FY2025 Yara produced 7.07M t of ammonia and 4.74M t of urea. It reports its segments by region, so its accounts give no nitrogen-only EBITDA of the kind CF or Nutrien's nitrogen segment shows. The N/P/K guide sets out which producer makes which nutrient.

How the Numbers Read

At European gas prices, gas is most of the cash cost of ammonia. The illustrative build in Yara's Fertilizer Industry Handbook uses 36 MMBtu a tonne: at $7/MMBtu that is $252 of gas plus $39 of other costs, $291/t in all, with gas at 87%. At Yara's $10-13/MMBtu the gas share is higher still.

More than 75% of Yara's European finished nitrogen products can be made from imported ammonia instead of its own (4Q25 results presentation, February 2026). When European gas spikes, Yara can buy ammonia and skip the dear gas. That limits the cost of a spike without lowering its gas price.

Net interest-bearing debt was $3,271M at 31 December 2025, or 1.17x EBITDA.

How You Would Value a Business Like This

Rebuild earnings at long-run regional gas prices, not one Henry Hub price. European plants need a European gas assumption; the long-run Henry Hub price of $3.00/MMBtu in the mid-cycle earnings guide does not apply to them. Swings in European gas also make one year's EBITDA a poor base.

At the same nutrient price, cheaper gas means a wider margin a tonne. The cost curve guide sets Yara's European gas cost beside CF's gas on Henry Hub.

What to Watch in the Financials

European against global gas cost. $13.2/MMBtu in Europe against $10.0 across all plants in FY2025. The gap shows how much of Yara's cost is set in Europe.

Ammonia imports. How much European output switches to imported ammonia when European gas rises.

Key Risks

Currency. Yara reports in US dollars and its shares trade in Norwegian kroner, so exchange rates move the share price apart from operating results.