Agribusiness · Aquaculture
Salmon Spot Prices and the Cycle
SISALMONI, Fish Pool and the SSB export price compared, a NOK 68/kg long-run price, the 2025 supply jump and the reference prices farmers file.
Selborne Research · Aquaculture coverage: 7 guides, 6 company profiles, a primer and Excel model
Educational analysis for professional use. This guide is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
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Three Salmon Prices, Three Jobs
There is no single salmon price. Three benchmarks are quoted, and each measures something different: the weekly exporters’ index (SISALMONI), the Fish Pool index that settles salmon futures, and Statistics Norway’s (SSB) export price from customs data. Using one where another belongs is a common modelling error.
| Benchmark | What it measures | Use it for |
|---|---|---|
| SISALMONI | Weekly price exporters report for fresh Atlantic salmon from Norway, by weight class | The spot price, week by week |
| Fish Pool Index | The price at which salmon futures contracts settle | Contract and hedge settlement |
| SSB export price | Average value per kg of all fresh farmed salmon exported, from customs data | Free annual and weekly averages; direction, not a weight-class quote |
SISALMONI replaced the Nasdaq Salmon Index in August 2024, after Nasdaq published its last index on 6 August. Fish Pool prices the futures market that large farmers use to lock in part of their sales. The SSB price averages every size and grade, so it sits apart from the weight-class quotes in the index. A model built on it should say so.
The Long-Run Price Assumption
Valuing a farmer needs a price it can earn across the cycle. The worked examples on this site and the Excel model that goes with the primer use one illustrative assumption:
| Assumption | NOK/kg | Set |
|---|---|---|
| Long-run salmon price (illustrative) | 68.0 | June 2026 |
| For comparison: SSB export price, 2025 average | 81.79 | Full year |
| For comparison: SSB export price, 2024 average | 94.44 | Full year |
The two averages are simple averages of Statistics Norway’s 52 weekly export prices for fresh farmed salmon (table 03024). NOK 68/kg is deliberately conservative against them. It is the input that moves a farmer’s value most, so test a range around it.
Supply Sets the Cycle
The price falls when supply jumps, and supply jumps late. Fish stocked 12-18 months earlier are already growing, so a good biological year arrives as a burst of harvest that the price has to absorb.
2025 was that year. Mowi’s FY2025 report says global Atlantic salmon supply grew 12%, a catch-up after several years of poor biology, and that it reduced prices: the SSB average fell from NOK 94.44/kg in 2024 to NOK 81.79/kg. Demand kept growing; Mowi puts it at 8% a year over the past decade.
Filed Reference Prices vs Export Averages
Farmers disclose realised or reference prices that rarely equal any index:
| Reference | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Mowi reference price, superior-grade salmon from Norway, gutted weight | EUR 6.79/kg | Q4 2025 |
| SSB export price, annual average | NOK 81.79/kg | 2025 |
| Long-run assumption in the worked examples | NOK 68/kg | Illustrative |
At the fourth-quarter 2025 average EUR/NOK of about 11.75 (Norges Bank monthly averages), Mowi’s Q4 reference of EUR 6.79/kg is roughly NOK 80/kg. Convert a period’s price at that period’s average rate, and compare each farmer’s own disclosure with the index it names.
From the Price to EBIT per kg
Price less farming cost gives operational EBIT per kg, so a price move lands almost entirely on the margin. On a farmer with a NOK 60/kg cost, a NOK 5/kg higher price adds about NOK 5/kg to EBIT per kg if biology stays clean. At NOK 68/kg that farmer earns NOK 8/kg; if it realised the 2025 SSB average of NOK 81.79/kg it would earn about NOK 22/kg, nearly three times as much. The cost-per-kg guide shows how farmers build cost and EBIT per kg.
A weak quarter leaves a farmer’s licence capacity untouched and cuts only what that year’s harvest earns.
Two fictional salmon farmers and a farm you set up yourself, each valued after tax year by year, with EV per kg and an EBIT multiple as cross-checks.
- 15 sections, from how a salmon farmer earns to licence capacity, biological risk and a worked valuation
- 40 pages
- a low-cost scale farmer, a high-cost regional farmer and a farm you set up yourself
- 3 farm engines
- listed salmon farmers across Norway, the Faroes, Scotland and Chile on filed FY2025 figures
- 6-company screen
The Excel model is the primer's farming valuation live across 12 sheets: two hypothetical farmers and a farm you set up yourself, each valued on an after-tax DCF that includes Norway's resource-rent tax on salmon farming, with EV per kg and an EBIT multiple as cross-checks; a valuation summary, an EBIT-per-kg and cost-stack view, capacity against EV per kg, a cycle and biological downturn scenario and a live sensitivity grid of salmon price against farming cost. Change the price, the farming cost or the harvest and the value moves.
See what's in the Aquaculture Sector Primer →£25 PDF · £59 with the Excel model · £159 for all three Agribusiness industries
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the difference between SISALMONI, Fish Pool and the SSB export price?
- SISALMONI is the weekly price exporters report for fresh Atlantic salmon from Norway, by weight class; it replaced the Nasdaq Salmon Index in August 2024. The Fish Pool Index is the price at which salmon futures contracts settle. The SSB figure is Statistics Norway's weekly export price from customs data: an average across all fresh farmed salmon exported, free to download. The three measure different things and are not interchangeable.
- What salmon price should models use for mid-cycle earnings?
- A long-run price. The worked examples on this site and the Excel model that goes with the primer use an illustrative NOK 68/kg, a conservative mid-cycle assumption set in June 2026. It is well below recent annual averages: Statistics Norway's weekly export price for fresh farmed salmon averaged NOK 81.79/kg in 2025 and NOK 94.44/kg in 2024 (table 03024). Because the price moves value more than any other input, test a range around it.
- How did supply growth affect salmon prices in 2025?
- Mowi reports that global Atlantic salmon supply grew 12% in 2025, after several years of poor biology, and that the jump reduced prices: the average weekly SSB export price fell from NOK 94.44/kg in 2024 to NOK 81.79/kg. Mowi puts demand growth over the past decade at 8% a year, so one year of fast supply growth can push the price well away from its long-run path.
- What reference prices do Norwegian farmers file?
- Mowi publishes a reference price for superior-grade salmon from Norway: EUR 6.79/kg gutted weight in Q4 2025. Farmers' realised prices differ from any index because of contracts, product form, size mix and currency, so read each company's own reference against the index it names.
Read next
Salmon Farming Economics: Cost per kg
What Mowi's cost in box and Grieg's farming cost include, and why each farmer's EBIT per kg has to be read on its own definition before comparing farmers.
EV/kg: Valuing Aquaculture Capacity
Enterprise value per kg of gutted-weight harvest capacity, how to strip non-farming assets out of EV, and why EV/kg is an analyst convention no company files.
Operational EBIT vs Reported EBIT in Salmon Farming
How IAS 41 values fish still in the sea at forward prices, what operational EBIT removes, and the FY2025 reconciliations at five salmon farmers.
See it applied
These company profiles apply the concepts from this guide to real public companies.