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Agribusiness · Aquaculture

Grieg Seafood (GSF)

Grieg Seafood after selling three of its four regions: 30,462 t Rogaland harvest in FY2025, NOK 61.4/kg farming cost and NOK 14.2/kg operational EBIT.

Selborne Research · · Equity Research Profile

Educational analysis for professional use. This profile is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.

Snapshot

Revenue/kg (FY2025)
NOK 80.5/kg
FY2025 Harvest, Gutted Weight
30,462 t (Rogaland only)
Farming Cost/kg
NOK 61.4/kg
Group Operational EBIT/kg
NOK 14.2/kg
Farming Operational EBIT/kg
NOK 19.1/kg
Rogaland Licensed Biomass Cap
17,800 t (98% in use)
Net Debt excl. Leases, 31 Dec 2025
NOK -2,476m (net cash)
12-Month Survival
91% (Q4 2025)

Business Overview

Grieg Seafood is now a one-region salmon farmer, and its FY2025 figures show the whole path from price to profit per kg. On 29 December 2025 it sold Finnmark, British Columbia and Newfoundland, three of its four farming regions, to Cermaq Group at an agreed enterprise value of NOK 10.2bn, and used most of the proceeds to repay debt. What is left is Rogaland in south-west Norway, which harvested 30,462 t gutted weight in FY2025, up 6% from 28,813 t. Every FY2025 figure here is on these continuing operations; group totals from before the sale are not comparable.

Grieg files a farming cost per kg, which most Norwegian farmers do not. Mowi files one too, in EUR and on a wider definition; the cost-per-kg guide sets out where each farmer draws the line.

How the Numbers Read

The unit economics read straight down the page. Operational EBIT, the profit measure salmon farmers report, leaves out the accounting revaluation of fish still in the sea, so it tracks the fish actually sold.

  • revenue of NOK 80.5/kg;
  • less farming cost of NOK 61.4/kg, down from NOK 63.0/kg in FY2024;
  • equals farming operational EBIT of NOK 19.1/kg;
  • less NOK 4.9/kg of other costs, including ownership and head-office costs;
  • equals group operational EBIT of NOK 14.2/kg, about NOK 433m.

With one region left, the whole gap between the two EBIT figures is overhead. Each NOK 1/kg change in the realised price moves both by about NOK 1/kg, because farming cost is largely committed before the fish are sold.

Rogaland's licences allowed 17,800 t of maximum allowed biomass (MAB) at 31 December 2025, and 98% of it was in use. MAB caps the weight of live fish in the sea at any one moment. Fish are stocked and harvested through the year, so the stock turns over and a year's harvest can exceed the cap, as the 30,462 t did. With the cap almost full, harvest can grow only through better fish performance, bought licences, the low-lice exception (up to 6% for farms with very few lice) or a better grade for the area. The MAB guide explains the growth routes.

The farms sit in production area 2, one of the 13 zones Norway grades every two years on how far sea lice from farms harm wild salmon. Green areas may grow up to 6%, yellow ones are frozen and red ones are cut 6%. Area 2 was yellow in 2024 and again on 19 June 2026, when the country was graded 3 green, 9 yellow and 1 red.

Twelve-month rolling survival was 91% at Q4 2025, against 92% a year earlier. SalMar reported 94.8% on the same basis. Lower survival raises treatment and mortality cost per kilo harvested. The biological risk guide links survival and the lice grades to capacity and cost.

Net interest-bearing debt was NOK -2,476m excluding leases at 31 December 2025, two days after the sale closed, so Grieg held net cash. That was a year-end figure only. On 17 April 2026 an extraordinary general meeting approved an extraordinary dividend of about NOK 4bn, more than the year-end net cash, paid on or about 28 April 2026.

Valuation Framework

An EV per kg built on the four-region group says nothing about the Rogaland-only company. The harvest has to be the continuing 30,462 t, and the balance sheet the one after both the sale and the April 2026 dividend. The EV/kg guide explains why the harvest and the enterprise value must cover the same businesses.

What to Watch in the Financials

Overhead per kilo. On one region's harvest, head-office and ownership cost is a separate line from farming cost, and it spreads over far fewer kilos: Grieg's harvest is roughly one-eighteenth of Mowi's.

Production area 2's grade. At any two-yearly grading, a red grade would cut the licence cap by 6%.

Key Risks

One production area. All harvest now comes from Rogaland, so a biological event or a worse grade there reaches the whole company.

A full licence. With 98% of the cap in use, a bad biological year cannot be offset by stocking more fish elsewhere.

Aquaculture Sector Primer

Two fictional salmon farmers and a farm you set up yourself, each valued after tax year by year, with EV per kg and an EBIT multiple as cross-checks.

15 sections, from how a salmon farmer earns to licence capacity, biological risk and a worked valuation
40 pages
a low-cost scale farmer, a high-cost regional farmer and a farm you set up yourself
3 farm engines
listed salmon farmers across Norway, the Faroes, Scotland and Chile on filed FY2025 figures
6-company screen

The Excel model is the primer's farming valuation live across 12 sheets: two hypothetical farmers and a farm you set up yourself, each valued on an after-tax DCF that includes Norway's resource-rent tax on salmon farming, with EV per kg and an EBIT multiple as cross-checks; a valuation summary, an EBIT-per-kg and cost-stack view, capacity against EV per kg, a cycle and biological downturn scenario and a live sensitivity grid of salmon price against farming cost. Change the price, the farming cost or the harvest and the value moves.

See what's in the Aquaculture Sector Primer →

£25 PDF · £59 with the Excel model · £159 for all three Agribusiness industries

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