Iridium Communications (IRDM)
Iridium shows what a satellite operator looks like once its constellation is built: GAAP-profitable, read on subscriber ARPU rather than a revenue multiple.
Educational analysis for professional use. This profile is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
Snapshot
Business Overview
Iridium already has what most LEO satellite operators are still building toward: a finished constellation and a GAAP-profitable business. Revenue grew 5% in FY2025 to $871.7M from $830.7M the year before, a slower pace than pre-profit peers show, because Iridium is compounding off a mature base rather than a ramp (see snapshot for OEBITDA, margin and net income). Market capitalisation was roughly $4.92B as of 10 June 2026 (105.0M shares × $46.90).
Billable subscribers kept growing through FY2025 (see snapshot for the total and the year-on-year change). The mix matters more than the headline count: FY2025 average ARPU by segment was voice $47/mo, IoT $7.78/mo and broadband $259/mo (Q4 voice $49, IoT $7.70, broadband $250), so more IoT adds can compress the blended average even as subscriber counts rise. Iridium runs a subscriber and ARPU model, not a launch or data-licensing model; the business models guide uses it as the in-orbit operator layer.
Iridium does not publish consolidated backlog. Its disclosed government anchor is the Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services (EMSS) contract (see snapshot for total value), signed in September 2019 at a fixed rate of $110.5M/yr through September 2026. Government revenue, direct and indirect, sits just below the >30% single-programme concentration screen this site applies across the sector; service-government alone was $108.0M. EMSS remains the recompete risk to watch in the government backlog guide.
How the Numbers Read
Capex was $100.3M in FY2025, inside the post-build maintenance band (under 15% of revenue, see snapshot) used in the constellation capex guide. Iridium NEXT finished in February 2019 at roughly $3B in historical network cost; today's spend maintains and refreshes an existing constellation rather than building a new one.
Because Iridium is GAAP-profitable with representative OEBITDA, the EV/sales guide uses it as the profitable-operator cross-check: once OEBITDA is representative, subscriber economics and margin become the relevant screen instead of a pre-profit revenue multiple. 2026 OEBITDA guidance of $480-490M is forward-looking company guidance rather than an audited figure.
Revenue growth is modest next to pre-profit peers such as Rocket Lab (+38%) or Planet Labs (+11%). That is because the screen here runs on subscriber economics and OEBITDA margin over a fully depreciated constellation; growth peers lean on EV/sales instead, because they do not yet have that margin history to read.
Valuation Framework
Profitable LEO operators are read on OEBITDA margin and subscriber ARPU rather than a pre-profit revenue multiple. Iridium's OEBITDA margin, shown in the snapshot, is a settled, filed proportion of revenue rather than one still built on guidance, which is what separates it from pre-profit peers. Government and commercial connectivity revenue is recurring and already GAAP-profitable, unlike a constellation still being built out.
Globalstar's capex runs near 201% of revenue, Apple-funded and prepayment-backed; Viasat's runs near 22% amid a GAAP loss. Iridium is the mature-operator comparison here: post-build capex intensity, already GAAP-profitable, with a subscriber base that has kept growing since the constellation build finished.
What to Watch in the Financials
Subscriber growth and ARPU mix. Billable subscribers keep growing, but the mix matters more than the headline count: broadband ARPU ran $259/mo in FY2025 versus IoT at $7.78/mo, so more IoT adds compress the blended average even while subscriber counts rise.
EMSS renewal path. Recompete or extension terms on the contract (see snapshot for size, fixed through September 2026) move roughly 12-13% of revenue a year, a lot to hinge on one counterparty.
OEBITDA versus 2026 guide. FY2025 OEBITDA already sits above the top of 2026 guidance of $480-490M, which itself would mark a step down. A downshift in that guide alongside flat subscribers would point to pricing or cost pressure on an already fully utilised network.
Capex discipline. Capex intensity sits inside the post-build maintenance band. A step above 15% without a disclosed upgrade programme would break that post-NEXT maintenance profile.
Key Risks
EMSS recompete. Government revenue sits just below this site's concentration screen, and EMSS is the named anchor behind it. Losing the contract, or seeing it repriced down at renewal, would remove a segment of revenue that today looks stable and government-backed.
LEO competition. Iridium's moat is global coverage and certified handset and IoT ecosystems. New LEO broadband entrants pressure pricing on data-heavy segments even where Iridium's niche, maritime, aviation, IoT, looks distinct from consumer broadband.
Low revenue growth. Mid-single-digit revenue compounding leaves little room for EPS leverage. Stagnant subscribers with flat ARPU would remove even that growth on a largely depreciated asset base.
Space & Satellites Sector Primer
Revenue ramp, margin and capex are the inputs. This primer takes both a pre-profit builder and a profitable operator to a discounted cash-flow value against an EV/sales screen.
The Excel model is the primer's two worked valuations live across 12 sheets: a ten-year free-cash-flow DCF for a profitable operator, and a pre-profit ramp builder that fades losses to a target margin, each with a cash-runway and capex bridge. Change the growth path, the exit multiple or the capex intensity and the value moves.