Iridium Communications (IRDM)

Business Overview

Iridium already has what most LEO satellite operators are still building toward: a finished constellation and a GAAP-profitable business. Revenue grew 5% in FY2025 to $871.7M from $830.7M the year before, a slower pace than pre-profit peers show, because Iridium is compounding off a mature base (see snapshot for OEBITDA, margin and net income). Market capitalisation was roughly $4.92B as of 10 June 2026 (105.0M shares × $46.90).

Billable subscribers kept growing through FY2025 (see snapshot for the total and the year-on-year change). The mix matters more than the headline count: FY2025 average ARPU by segment was voice $47/mo, IoT $7.78/mo and broadband $259/mo (Q4 voice $49, IoT $7.70, broadband $250), so more IoT adds can compress the blended average even as subscriber counts rise. Iridium runs a subscriber and ARPU model; the business models guide uses it as the in-orbit operator layer.

Iridium does not publish consolidated backlog. Its disclosed government anchor is the Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services (EMSS) contract (see snapshot for total value), signed in September 2019 at a fixed rate of $110.5M/yr through September 2026. Government revenue, direct and indirect, sits just below the >30% single-programme concentration screen this site applies across the sector; service-government alone was $108.0M. EMSS remains the recompete risk to watch in the government backlog guide.

How the Numbers Read

Capex was $100.3M in FY2025, inside the post-build maintenance band (under 15% of revenue, see snapshot) used in the constellation capex guide. Iridium NEXT finished in February 2019 at roughly $3B in historical network cost; today's spend only maintains and refreshes it.

Because Iridium is GAAP-profitable with representative OEBITDA, the EV/sales guide uses it as the profitable-operator cross-check, screened on subscriber economics and margin. 2026 OEBITDA guidance of $480-490M is company guidance and unaudited.

Revenue growth is modest next to pre-profit peers such as Rocket Lab (+38%) or Planet Labs (+11%). Those peers are screened on EV/sales because they have no margin history yet. Iridium has one, earned over a fully depreciated constellation.

Valuation Framework

Profitable LEO operators are read on OEBITDA margin and subscriber ARPU. Iridium's margin, shown in the snapshot, is filed; pre-profit peers' margins still rest on guidance. Its government and commercial connectivity revenue is recurring and already GAAP-profitable.

Globalstar's capex runs near 201% of revenue, Apple-funded and prepayment-backed; Viasat's runs near 22% amid a GAAP loss. Iridium is the mature-operator comparison here: post-build capex intensity, already GAAP-profitable, with a subscriber base that has kept growing since the constellation build finished.

What to Watch in the Financials

Subscriber growth and ARPU mix. Broadband ARPU ran $259/mo in FY2025 against IoT at $7.78/mo, so a rising count can still pull the blended average down if the adds are IoT.

EMSS renewal path. Recompete or extension terms on the contract (see snapshot for size, fixed through September 2026) move roughly 12-13% of revenue a year on one counterparty.

OEBITDA versus 2026 guide. FY2025 OEBITDA sits above the top of 2026 guidance of $480-490M, so the guide already implies a step down. A downshift in that guide alongside flat subscribers would point to pricing or cost pressure on an already fully utilised network.

Capex discipline. Capex intensity sits inside the post-build maintenance band. A step above 15% without a disclosed upgrade programme would break that post-NEXT maintenance profile.

Key Risks

EMSS recompete. Government revenue sits just below this site's concentration screen, and EMSS is the named anchor behind it. Losing the contract, or seeing it repriced down at renewal, would remove a segment of revenue that today looks stable and government-backed.

LEO competition. Iridium's moat is global coverage and certified handset and IoT ecosystems. New LEO broadband entrants pressure pricing on data-heavy segments, even in niches (maritime, aviation, IoT) that look distinct from consumer broadband.

Low revenue growth. Mid-single-digit revenue compounding leaves little room for EPS leverage. Stagnant subscribers with flat ARPU would remove even that growth on a largely depreciated asset base.