Backlog and Government Contracts in Space
How government anchor programmes and backlog definitions differ across space filers, plus the concentration screen and recompete risk behind each contract.
Educational analysis for professional use. This guide is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
Government Programmes Anchor Visibility, Not All Backlogs Are Comparable
Space names sell into defence, intelligence and civil agencies alongside commercial customers. Multi-year government contracts de-risk revenue but introduce recompete timing and programme concentration. The first analytical step is separating disclosed contract anchors from company-defined backlog, because filers use different labels for the same economic idea.
Rocket Lab, Viasat and Planet publish backlog or RPO (remaining performance obligations) tables. Iridium discloses EMSS (Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services) without a consolidated backlog total. Globalstar leans on deferred revenue from Apple prepayments. Ranking peers on a single “backlog ÷ revenue” ratio without reconciling definitions will mis-sort the group.
Filed Government Anchor Programmes
| Company | Anchor | Scale | Contract shape |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iridium | EMSS (US Government) | $738.5M over 7 years; $110.5M/yr fixed through Sep 2026 | Signed Sep 2019; service gov revenue $108.0M FY2025 |
| Rocket Lab | SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 | $816M prime for 18 satellites | Prime build; in space-systems backlog |
| Planet | NGA Luno B IDIQ | $200M ceiling (5-year base) | Data subscription ceiling |
| Viasat | Defence & advanced technologies | $984.0M of $3.55B firm backlog (~28%) | Firm backlog within operator |
Rocket Lab’s total backlog was $1.85B at 31 Dec 2025, split between launch and space systems in the table below. Government revenue was ~28% of FY2025 sales, but backlog itself is not split gov/commercial in filings; the SDA (Space Development Agency) prime sits inside the space-systems side. See the Rocket Lab profile.
Iridium’s government revenue, direct and indirect, was 29% of total ($257.0M). No aggregate backlog is filed, so EMSS is the anchor teaching case. The Iridium profile covers OEBITDA $495.3M and subscriber economics alongside EMSS.
Planet’s backlog and RPO figures appear in the table below, with 37% of RPO due within 12 months. Vertical revenue split is not filed; one customer was 19% of FY2025 revenue. NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) Luno B is an IDIQ (indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity) contract, adding a government data ceiling separate from total backlog. See the Planet profile and business models guide. Planet’s fiscal year ended 31 January 2025, a different twelve months from the December filers.
Backlog Definitions Across Peers
| Company | Disclosed measure | FY2025 value | Split filed? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab | Total backlog | $1.85B | Launch $475.6M / space systems $1,371.7M only |
| Viasat | Firm backlog | $3.55B | Commercial $2.57B / defence $984M |
| Planet | Backlog / RPO | $503.7M / $412.8M | RPO timing disclosed |
| Globalstar | Deferred revenue | $869M | Largely Apple prepayments |
| Iridium | No total backlog | EMSS $738.5M anchor | Contract only |
| EchoStar | BSS contracted backlog | ~$1.4B | Pay-TV/wireless/Hughes mix |
EchoStar’s revenue is not disaggregated gov/commercial in filings, and its BSS backlog sits inside a going-concern narrative driven more by 2026 debt maturities than by programme recompete.
Viasat’s firm backlog of $3.55B against FY2025 revenue of $4.52B means multi-year conversion visibility. Its defence backlog aligns with US government revenue at ~18% of total: backlog mix and revenue mix need not match in the same quarter. The Viasat profile pairs defence backlog with ~22% capex intensity from the constellation capex guide.
Concentration and Recompete Risk
As a working convention we state rather than source, a single government programme above 30% of revenue counts as anchor-customer concentration. Iridium’s 29% government revenue sits just below that line, though EMSS dominates its disclosed government anchor. Rocket Lab’s ~28% carries the SDA prime’s risk inside space-systems backlog rather than as a standalone revenue-percent headline.
Globalstar’s Apple relationship is commercial wholesale concentration, with 63% of revenue running through one counterparty, a different kind of exposure from a government recompete case. The risk sits in contract renewal and prepayment timing on $869M deferred revenue, well away from anything resembling a DoD re-bid.
| Concentration type | Example | Risk lens |
|---|---|---|
| Government programme | EMSS, SDA prime | Recompete, appropriation cycles |
| Commercial wholesale | Apple 63% (GSAT) | Contract renewal, prepayment burn |
| Single enterprise customer | Planet 19% of revenue | Account churn |
| Not filed | EchoStar gov/commercial split | Model as undisclosed |
Government Mix vs Backlog Mix
Government revenue share and defence backlog share diverge by design:
| Company | Gov revenue (filed) | Defence / gov backlog proxy |
|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab | ~28% | Backlog not split; SDA in space systems |
| Iridium | 29% total gov | EMSS $738.5M (no total backlog) |
| Viasat | US gov ~18% | Defence backlog $984M (~28% of firm) |
| Planet | Vertical split not filed | NGA ceiling $200M; backlog $503.7M total |
Use revenue mix for near-term P&L concentration; use backlog or deferred revenue for forward visibility. They answer different questions.
Reading Government Backlog in a Model
- Pull the filer’s exact backlog or deferred-revenue definition from the 10-K before computing ratios.
- Map anchor programmes (EMSS, SDA, NGA, Viasat defence) to revenue recognition timing; the headline contract value alone can mislead.
- Flag concentration against the 30% government-programme screen and separate commercial wholesale cases (Apple).
- Cross-check capex intensity where government primes require orbital capacity (SDA satellites, EMSS service continuity).
- Pair backlog visibility with valuation: pre-profit names still trade EV/sales on filed LTM revenue; see the valuation guide.
Iridium’s EMSS, fixed at $110.5M/yr through Sep 2026, is near-term revenue visibility. Rocket Lab’s $816M SDA prime is build-cycle visibility sitting inside total backlog. Planet’s $200M ceiling caps what the agency could order; it isn’t revenue already booked. Treat each shape on its own terms.
Space & Satellites Sector Primer
Revenue ramp, margin and capex are the inputs. This primer takes both a pre-profit builder and a profitable operator to a discounted cash-flow value against an EV/sales screen.
The Excel model is the primer's two worked valuations live across 12 sheets: a ten-year free-cash-flow DCF for a profitable operator, and a pre-profit ramp builder that fades losses to a target margin, each with a cash-runway and capex bridge. Change the growth path, the exit multiple or the capex intensity and the value moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What government anchor programmes appear in space filers?
- Filed FY2025 anchors: Iridium EMSS $738.5M over seven years ($110.5M/yr fixed through Sep 2026); Rocket Lab SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 prime $816M for 18 satellites; Planet NGA Luno B IDIQ ceiling $200M (five-year base); Viasat defence and advanced technologies firm backlog $984.0M of $3.55B total firm backlog (~28%). Each teaches a different contract shape: fixed annual EMSS, prime satellite build, data IDIQ ceiling, and defence backlog within a commercial operator.
- Why do backlog definitions differ between space companies?
- Rocket Lab reports total backlog ($1.85B) split launch vs space systems only. Viasat reports firm backlog ($3.55B) split commercial vs defence. Planet reports backlog $503.7M and RPO $412.8M separately. Globalstar uses $869M deferred revenue (Apple prepayments) as a visibility proxy rather than a classic backlog table. Iridium does not publish consolidated backlog; EMSS $738.5M is the disclosed anchor contract. Cross-peer ranking needs a footnote on definition: forcing every filer into one numerator would misstate what each actually discloses.
- What is government programme concentration risk?
- As a working convention we state rather than source, a single government programme above 30% of revenue flags anchor-customer concentration and recompete risk. Iridium government revenue was 29% of total ($257.0M) with EMSS as the anchor. Rocket Lab government revenue ~28%. Viasat US government ~18%. Globalstar Apple at 63% is commercial wholesale concentration, a different recompete profile. Programme loss or re-bid timing can move equity more than a quarter of EBITDA would suggest.
- How does defence backlog differ from commercial backlog at Viasat?
- Firm backlog at 31 Mar 2025 was $3,552.8M: commercial $2,568.8M and defence & advanced technologies $984.0M (~28% of firm backlog). FY2025 US government revenue was ~18% of total. Defence backlog provides multi-year visibility on classified and tactical comms programmes separate from consumer broadband ramp. Constellation capex (~22% of revenue) runs on a different timeline from backlog conversion.