Commercial Aerospace Sector Primer
A 40-page primer plus Excel valuation model on commercial aerospace equity analysis: backlog-years, OEM and aftermarket mix, FCF conversion, EV/EBITDA by model.
PDF Only
The full primer in PDF format
£25 / ~$32- ✓ 40-page sector primer
- ✓ Worked valuations
- ✓ Screening thresholds
Excel Model
Plug-and-play valuation template
£45 / ~$58- ✓ Pre-built valuation model
- ✓ Sensitivity tables
- ✓ Scenario toggles
PDF + Model
Everything you need in one package
- ✓ 40-page sector primer
- ✓ Valuation model (.xlsx)
- ✓ Save £11 vs buying separately
Three primers, three Excel models
Defence Primes, Commercial Aerospace, and Space & Satellites. Everything at ~25% off
Inside the primer
The 15-section contents, a worked valuation page, and the Excel dashboard.
Table of Contents
- 01 How Commercial Aerospace Makes Money
- 02 Listed Company Types
- 03 The Programme Lifecycle
- 04 Segments and Sub-Markets
- 05 Revenue Drivers: Illustrative Airframer Build
- 06 Cost Structure: Backlog and Margin Vocabulary
- 07 Valuation Frameworks
- 08 Worked Example: OEM Airframer Dual-Rate Sum-of-Parts (SOTP)
- 09 Worked Example: Engine OEM Dual-Rate SOTP
- 10 Applied Cases: Airframers
- 11 Applied Cases: Engines and Suppliers
- 12 Key Metrics and Screening
- 13 Risks, Benchmarks and Case Study
- 14 Glossary of Essential Terms
- 15 Quick Reference Cheat Sheet
40 pages · 15 sections · 2 worked valuations
The Excel model
Educational material for professional use. This primer and its model are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and they are not personalised. Worked valuations use illustrative calibrations, not fair-value estimates for any company.
Commercial aerospace is a duopoly airframe cycle bolted to an aftermarket annuity. The first aircraft sale earns little; the margin arrives over decades in engines, spares and services on the installed fleet. Backlog-years set the volume ramp and aftermarket mix sets the margin, and the two move on different clocks, which is why a single sector multiple misleads.
The primer builds the tools in order: how airframers, engine makers and proprietary suppliers make money, the aircraft lifecycle from order to retirement, then the mix and margin bridges. Two worked examples run a dual-rate sum-of-parts valuation from first input to value per share, an airframer and an engine OEM, discounting original-equipment and aftermarket cash flows at their own rates, before applied cases on Boeing, Airbus, GE Aerospace, Safran, Howmet and TransDigm. Screening closes with backlog-years bands, aftermarket mix and EV/EBITDA read by business model.
Free guides on the site cover the individual pieces, so you can revise one idea without reopening the PDF: OEM vs aftermarket margins, aftermarket revenue mix by company, backlog and the narrowbody ramp, firm backlog vs unfilled orders, aftermarket and the installed base, the Boeing and Airbus duopoly and EV/EBITDA and FCF for aerospace. Research profiles for Boeing, Airbus, GE Aerospace, Safran, Howmet and TransDigm run the same screens on filed results. The companion Excel model spans twelve sheets, from two archetype tabs through the backlog, installed-base and mix screens to a 15-year aftermarket DCF and a live sensitivity grid, so swapping in your own OEM rebuilds the valuation from the delivery schedule up.
Sheets: Quick Start, Instructions, Assumptions, OEM Airframer, Engine OEM, Valuation Summary, Backlog & Fleet, Installed Base & Aftermarket, 15yr Installed-Base DCF, OE vs Aftermarket, Sensitivity, Dashboard.
See this methodology applied to a real company:
Boeing (BA) →