Steel & Bulk Commodities Sector Primer
Steel and bulk commodities primer with an Excel valuation model. Covers steel spreads, iron ore cost curves, met coal and through-cycle EBITDA.
PDF Only
The full primer in PDF format
£25 / ~$32- ✓ 40-page sector primer
- ✓ Worked valuations
- ✓ Screening thresholds
Excel Model
Plug-and-play valuation template
£45 / ~$58- ✓ Pre-built valuation model
- ✓ Sensitivity tables
- ✓ Scenario toggles
PDF + Model
Everything you need in one package
- ✓ 40-page sector primer
- ✓ Valuation model (.xlsx)
- ✓ Save £11 vs buying separately
Three primers, three Excel models
Mining, Royalty & Streaming, and Steel & Bulk. Everything at ~25% off
Inside the primer
The 15-section contents, a worked valuation page, and the Excel dashboard.
Table of Contents
- 01 How Steel & Bulk Producers Make Money
- 02 Listed Company Types
- 03 The Value Chain and Route Ladder
- 04 Segments and Sub-Markets
- 05 Revenue Drivers: Generic Spread Build
- 06 Cost Structure: Spreads, C1 and All-In
- 07 Valuation Frameworks
- 08 Worked Example: Cyclical DCF, EAF Steelmaker
- 09 Worked Examples: Iron Ore and Met Coal
- 10 Applied Cases: Steelmakers
- 11 Applied Cases: Bulk Miners
- 12 Key Metrics and Screening
- 13 Policy, Trade and the US Premium
- 14 Risks, Benchmarks and Case Study
- 15 Glossary and Cheat Sheet
40 pages · 15 sections · 3 worked DCFs
The Excel model
Educational material for professional use. This primer and its model are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and they are not personalised. Worked valuations use illustrative calibrations, not fair-value estimates for any company.
Steel earnings read cheap at the top of the cycle and dear at the bottom; the trailing multiple misleads at both ends. Producers here are volume businesses priced off three marks: the steel spread, the iron ore cost curve, and the met coal benchmark. Spot prices and trailing EBITDA swing hard with the cycle, so last-twelve-months multiples and a generic DCF on reported cash flow misprice the equity at the extremes. The work is to rebuild normalised earnings at through-cycle marks, map the issuer to the right margin driver (spread for steelmakers, cost position for bulk miners), then value on mid-cycle EV/EBITDA with enough balance-sheet headroom to survive the trough.
The primer works through the method step by step: listed company types, the mine-to-steel value chain and route ladder (BOF vs EAF), segment economics, then the spread and cost-structure build. Valuation frameworks cover normalised EBITDA and through-cycle multiples. Worked examples walk an EAF steelmaker through a cyclical DCF and run iron ore and met coal producers on the same price assumptions, with applied cases on steelmakers and bulk miners. Screening metrics, policy and the US premium, risks, and a glossary close the method.
Free guides on the site cover the steel spread and EAF margins, the iron ore C1 cost curve, EV/EBITDA through the cycle, met coal vs thermal coal, and EBITDA per tonne comparisons. To see the framework applied to real companies, read the research profiles on ArcelorMittal, Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, Vale, Fortescue, and Warrior Met Coal.
The companion Excel model runs to thirteen sheets, from the archetype DCFs to a through-cycle screen. Every price sits on one assumptions sheet, so when the marks move you rerun the steelmaker and bulk frameworks and the numbers follow.
Sheets: Quick Start, Instructions, Assumptions, EAF Steelmaker, Iron Ore, Met Coal, Integrated BF-BOF, Valuation Summary, Cycle Scenarios, Cost Curve, Leverage Screen, Sensitivity, Dashboard.
See this methodology applied to a real company:
ArcelorMittal (MT) →