Technology · Software
Snowflake (SNOW)
Snowflake is the usage-priced platform case: consumption revenue, cohort net retention, and stock pay that turns positive FCF negative.
Selborne Research · · Company Profile
Educational analysis. This profile is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not personalised.
Snapshot
- FY2026 Revenue
- $4.7B (+29.2%)
- Gross Margin
- 67.2% (FY2026)
- GAAP Operating Margin
- -30.6% (FY2026)
- Stock Pay / Revenue
- 34.1% (FY2026)
- FCF Margin
- 23.9% (FY2026)
- FCF After Stock Pay
- -10.2% (FY2026)
- Net Revenue Retention
- 125% (FY2026)
- Product Revenue Share
- 95.5% (FY2026)
Business Overview
Snowflake sells cloud data capacity on consumption pricing. FY2026 (year to 31 January 2026) revenue was $4.7B, up 29.2%. Gross margin was 67.2%. GAAP operating margin was -30.6%. R&D was 42.0% of revenue and sales and marketing 44.0%. Stock-based compensation was 34.1% of revenue.
Free cash flow was $1.1B, or 23.9% of revenue, but -$0.5B after stock pay (-10.2% of revenue). Product revenue, recognised as customers consume, was 95.5% of the total. Net revenue retention was 125% (126% a year earlier), measured over two years on a cohort of capacity customers. Remaining performance obligations were $9.8B, up 42% from $6.9B, with about 46% due within twelve months. Capex was 2.2% of revenue.
How the Numbers Read
Reported free cash flow looks healthy until stock pay is charged: 23.9% becomes -10.2%. Revenue growth of 29.2% plus FCF margin of 23.9% sums to 53.1 before stock pay; after stock pay the sum is 19.0. GAAP operating loss at -30.6% and positive reported FCF can coexist because stock pay is added back in the cash-flow presentation many filers highlight.
Net revenue retention of 125% on a two-year capacity cohort is not the same as a trailing-twelve-month ARR net retention at a seat SaaS company. Usage pricing also means customers can cut consumption in a downturn, so net retention can swing below 100%. The usage-pricing guide covers that volatility. Capex at 2.2% is low; stock pay at 34.1% is the capital claim that matters.
How the Model Values This Kind of Company
For a usage-priced platform, consumption and net retention on the filer's own cohort definition are the revenue drivers, and both can swing when customers cut usage. Stock pay at this intensity is the cash driver that turns reported free cash flow negative once charged as a cost.
Capacity customers typically pay a year in advance, so deferred revenue still builds as the business grows: it added $755M of cash in FY2026, while revenue waits on consumption. Capex is usually light; the wedge between reported FCF and FCF after stock pay is the valuation question.
What to Watch in the Financials
Net revenue retention and its cohort definition. 125% on a two-year capacity cohort (from 126%). A shift in cohort rules or a consumption downturn moves this before revenue fully shows it.
Stock pay as a share of revenue. 34.1% in FY2026. That single line turns 23.9% FCF margin into -10.2% after stock pay.
Product revenue share. 95.5% recognised on consumption. Services mix is small; almost all growth and volatility sit in product.
Current share of RPO. About 46% of $9.8B. Capacity contracts can swell RPO without near-term consumption.
Key Risks
Stock-pay intensity. At 34.1% of revenue, stock pay exceeds reported free cash flow of 23.9% of revenue, so free cash flow after stock pay is negative.
Consumption volatility. Customers can optimise or pause usage; net retention can fall faster than in seat-based models.
GAAP operating loss. -30.6% operating margin means profitability on a GAAP basis still depends on cutting stock pay, R&D or sales intensity relative to revenue.
Definitional NRR. A two-year cohort rate is not comparable to peers' trailing measures without reading both definitions in the definitions guide.
A software DCF rolls recurring revenue forward from retention and new customers, charges stock pay as the cost it is, and ties terminal growth to what the customer base can deliver.
- 17 sections, from the recurring-revenue roll-forward and retention disclosure to stock pay, the Rule of 40, usage pricing, the licence-to-cloud transition and serial acquirers
- 42 pages
- a seat SaaS grower, a usage-priced platform, a licence-to-cloud platform and a vertical-software acquirer, all fictional
- 4 worked valuations
- listed software companies on filed margins, stock pay, free cash flow and backlog, each with its fiscal year
- 6-company screen
The Excel model is the primer's recurring-revenue DCF live across 13 sheets: a seat SaaS grower, a usage-priced platform, a licence-to-cloud platform and a vertical-software acquirer, all fictional, plus a column for a company of your own in any of the four business models. Revenue rolls forward from gross and net retention and new-customer revenue, fading to terminal levels that set perpetual growth. Margins move in a straight line to year 10, and stock pay is charged as a cost or counted through dilution. A licence base migrates to the cloud at a conversion ratio you set, and an acquirer's deals earn their own margin. A reverse DCF reads the growth a price requires, and the sensitivity grids re-run the model in every cell.
See what's in the Software Sector Primer →£25 PDF · £59 with the Excel model · £159 for all three Technology industries
Learn the Concepts
Understand the valuation frameworks and metrics used in this analysis.
Net Revenue Retention: How Filers Define It
Why two retention figures can share a label and measure different things: cohort, period, ARR or revenue basis, and customer threshold.
Usage-Based Pricing and Net Retention
Under consumption pricing, revenue moves with customer use, so net retention reflects optimisation as well as seats. Snowflake as the worked case.
Rule of 40: Which Margin Goes In
Growth plus margin depends on which margin you choose: FCF, FCF after stock pay, or operating margin. The 40% bar is shown on a fictional company.
Stock Pay as a Share of Revenue in Software
Stock-based compensation is a real operating cost under ASC 718. Across six filers it ranges from nil to over a third of revenue.
Software FCF Before vs After Stock Pay
Reported free cash flow adds stock pay back. A consistent valuation either charges that cost or counts the dilution, never neither.
More Technology Research
Software guides
- Net Revenue Retention: How Filers Define It
- Gross vs Net Revenue Retention
- Usage-Based Pricing and Net Retention
- Rule of 40: Which Margin Goes In
- Stock Pay as a Share of Revenue in Software
- Software FCF Before vs After Stock Pay
- RPO and cRPO in Software
- Current Share of RPO by Software Company
- Licence-to-Cloud Transitions and the Revenue Dip
- Reverse DCF for Software Stocks
- Vertical Software Acquirers: Return on Acquired Capital